《揭示民族复兴周期律而抉破之》

《揭示民族兴亡周期律而抉破之》

黄炎培

这次十个讲题，可以分为两部分，前五个讲题，仿佛是本文的一个前奏；后五个讲题，才可说是本文。而今天所讲的正是本文的开始。

诸位，我常想生在世界上做一个人，兴趣究竟在什么地方？恐怕最大的兴趣，就是随时在增加新知识这一点罢。比如这次世界大战，从大战中，兄弟就得到了不少的新知识，今晚就想把我们所得到的其中较重要的一点，提出来供大家参考，并请大家研究是否赞同。

我们常常可以看到一个人家，或者一位朋友，本来很穷，慢慢地会发富起家，可是起家之后不久又慢慢的衰败下去。我现在六十多岁，在这短短的人生中，亲眼看见这些人和这些人家，由贫而富，由富而贫，或者由贱而贵，又由贵而贱，真不在少数。我常想其中必有奥妙。

有一位老前辈，他曾经画过一张图，说明一个人家兴衰成败的道理，这张图大概是这样：

这张图表示一个人或一个人家的兴衰成败，逃不出这个圈子。原来是贫贱的，他一定能勤俭，因为勤俭，就会成功；既然成功了，想享福，因此就趋于奢，既奢又惰，当然失败了；失败之后，只好拼命勤俭，自然慢慢的又会成功。当初兄弟看到这张图，觉得没有什么，直到这次太平洋战争发动以后，才恍然大悟——“悟”在那里呢？且让我细细说来。有一天，和一位自然科学专家，谈到这张圆周式循环的图画时，这位专家说：这却和自然科学的周期律一样。在化学上，原子的变化，有一定的轨道；在物理学上，力的作用，也有一定的轨道。我听了之后，深深感觉到我又找到了一个自然科学和社会科学相通的道理来了。于是我就关起门来，仔细地想，想而又想，恍然大悟——大悟到这个定律，中外古今确是透彻着的；又大悟到圆周图中间，

有个间隙，可以抉破它。我下边所讲，都是抉破它的方法。

这次世界大战发生前，好几个国家轰轰烈烈地号称海上霸王、陆上强国，一打就公然被人打“垮”了。而有的国家，本来被踹在别人脚下，一打却反而爬起来！我想这中间很有研究的价值，举例来说：

首先，我们讲德国，在战事发生以前，受着前次世界大战和约的压迫，二十年间一直没法抬头，后来自己拼命地奋斗、苦干，到了这次大战发生，在很快的时间里，竟大大小小灭亡了十几个国家，堂堂法国，也不能不屈膝投降，这就证明德国比如一个人家在失败后，拼命想出头，即第一讲的死里求生，结果呢？居然求到了。在一个人家由失败到成功，完全靠勤俭，在一个民族，一个国家呢？埋头苦干，努力工作，就是勤；增加生产，节约消费，就是俭。除这些以外，还靠两个字——“敢死”。一个国家要在失败后从死里去求生，第一就只有靠“不怕死”。因为对方是成功的国家，他总想享受，哪里肯死，哪里敢死。他不肯死，我肯死。他不敢死，我敢死。这样当然就成功了。

其次回过头来，看看有的国家，他们有传统的势力，有最坚固、最完全的武备，结果呢？险要很快地给人家占领，很短时间内就沦落了。据报上披露，在陷落时还有大炮几百门，机关枪几千挺。这些大炮为什么不开，机关枪为什么不摇呢？哎呀！算了吧！这已经足够证明了人们占有锦天绣地的世界，平时过分的享乐，麻醉在这丰富美丽的天地中间，够舒服了。为什么还要打仗呢？啥子事犯得着要拼命呢？当然，这只是一时一地的现象，不可以拿来想象到他们整个的前途，但我们应该有这严重的觉悟，所以我要把这图加上一个外圈：

关于太平洋的战事，兄弟所知道的事实，可以证明这张图正确性的还不少。我们知道香港过去在军事上的准备也相当雄厚，但是这次

战后是怎么一回事呢？……诸位，不又是这张图最好的证明吗？

我们回头再看看日本。日本军阀横行无道，真是“人人得而诛之”。不过他们也有无道之道，值得我们注意的。

太平洋战事于去年十二月七号发动之前，是谁也没有预料到的。诸位记得在战事发生以前，日本还有一位专使叫来栖三郎的，正在美国国务院叽咕叽咕的办交涉。哪知口水未干，竟打起来了。这真是无道到了极点。可是究竟怎样的打法呢？大家都知道那一天日本的袭击，美国自己亦承认珍珠港受了很大的损失。但怎么能够成功呢？美国并不是没有准备呀。原来日本打珍珠港，除了用一般的飞机军舰之外，还有一种特别的武器。这种特别的武器，叫做“自杀式水艇”，是一种极小型的潜艇，只坐一人，艇里充满炸药，开足了速力，对准了目标，“轰”这么一下碰上去，自然目的物（军舰）被炸毁了，但是驾驶的军官和那潜艇当然粉身碎骨，万死不会有一生，这叫做“自杀式潜水艇”。诸位比较一下，一方面是牺牲精神这样的旺盛，另一方面这样的奢惰怕死，这还可以同日而语吗！这样的事实，不是可以做这张图有力的证据吗？

其次讲到敢死。我要提醒诸位，这一点，诀不要看轻敌人。日本人敢死的确是敢死，我依据报纸公开的报告，要向诸位提起一件事，就是前次长沙第三次会战，我们大大地打败了敌人，敌人领导进攻长沙的首领阿部中将，因战事失败，切腹自杀。日本切腹自杀之风，由来已久，四百年前日本顶早一位切腹的叫做楠正成，当时他是一位忠勇的大将，为了他的部下足利尊者作乱，他自认勤王不力，救国无效，愤极之下，全家破腹自杀。这仿佛是相当于明朝万历年间的事。此风一开，一般军官凡是有痛忿的事情，尤其是觉得自己对不住国家，对不住天皇的时候，都切腹自杀，流传至今，尚盛行于全国上下。日本人敢死确是敢死！不过，我并非光是长他人志气，灭自己威风。我说明日本的厉害，就表明我们五年的抗战价值更大呀，而且我们更知道对着这凶横险狠的国家，我们能和他抗战到五年之久，这究竟靠什么？这就是靠我们敢死，这里我可以告诉各位一点事实。

刚才谈到自杀潜艇，以为它厉害得不得了，其实算得什么？我们中国多得很。这种牺牲报国的死，日本须经过长期训练的军官才能干，而我们则一般老百姓都能够干。在“一•二八”上海第一次对日作战时，当时敌人同我们作战,他们的军火必须由吴淞口登陆，再用大卡车将军火运到上海江湾闸北一带来用。从吴淞到上海沿着黄浦江边，有一条马路，其中一段叫做衣周塘路。敌人在对我作战时，一部大卡车装满了军火向阵地开来。开车的一位司机，姓胡，叫胡阿毛，他把车子开到半路上，却转起念头来。他想，要是把这批军火运到江湾的话，不知又要打死多少中国老百姓啊。要是跑开，上面又有押车的日本军官，逃不了，这样的念头转了很久，他就下了最后的决心，把车子开到某一地点，便加足马力，出其不意，对准黄浦江中心，轰的一声，开了下去，一卡车的日本军官和军火通通牺牲。他自己当然同样牺牲了。诸位！这位胡司机，比起日本的自杀潜艇来，又有哪点不如呢？在日本认为了不得，在我们中国却毫不稀奇，连一位人家不很重视的司机也能办得到。在日本还特别造了一座楠公像，在我们中国却平常得很。要知道我们抗战能抗到五年，这却不是小事情，固然靠着最高领袖艰苦卓绝的领导指挥，也是靠了这一批人大家敢死，所以才有今天。

但是中国既有这样的好百姓、好民心和民众，为什么还丢掉这般多的地方，而且失地到今天还不能赶快收复呢？这是因为还有一部分人的路走错了，走了奢惰的路和怕死的路所致。诸位走勤俭和敢死这边一条路的，就能叫中国抗战到五年之久，而且愈战愈强；走奢惰和怕死那边一条路的，就会送掉这样多的江山。两种人在一个时间里，所以会有今天不胜不败、不生不死的局面。为何不生，为何不胜，就是吃了那边人的亏；为何不死，为何不败，就是靠着走这边一条路“敢死”的人们。其间清清楚楚，毫不冤枉！

由此看来，这张图的确与国家民族的兴衰成败，有甚大的关系。我们稍微翻翻历史，在一千九百年前，汉高祖与项羽争天下，项羽将汉高祖的老太爷捉住了，告诉汉高祖，你得小心，假若你要和我捣蛋，我就把你老太爷杀掉，而且要吃他的肉！汉高祖想了想说，你如果要吃家父时，请分一块予我吃。这话，当然是街头无赖的话，但也代表不怕死的精神，结果不怕死的成了功。二百年后，王莽篡位，当时刘氏子孙蹩脚透了，居然出一位光武帝。光武不过是上海人说的“老实头”，但老实头居然也造起反来，而且打到王莽，做了皇帝。这就是因为汉光武帝不怕死。不但自己不怕死，而且云台二十八将都不怕死，所以终于成功。可是到了东汉末年，奢惰之风又盛，因此敢死者都纷纷起来，造成了三国时代的局面。这和西汉与东汉开国之初，比起来真是太不成样了，由汉高祖的成功到西汉末年，由王莽到光武帝的革命，有东汉到三国的群雄割据一部历史，清清楚楚摆在面前，证明这张图是千真万确。

我们又看到元朝开国之初，统一亚洲，它的疆土，在欧洲到达了意大利，非洲到达了埃及，版图跨欧亚非三洲，国势之强，远胜于今日之德意志。但不到百年，土崩瓦解，现在一点也没有了，我们如考察其中兴亡的缘由，又恰是一个圆的。这也是一例。

因此，我把这张图取了一个名字，叫做“世界民族兴亡消息图”。

今晚讲了这一段话，是不是我们完全站在旁观的地位，冷言冷语的批评一下就完了呢？不，兄弟讲这段话有意思，而且有些深刻的意思。

兄弟想天下的事就怕不知道，知道这样会走向灭亡的话，我就偏不走，不就行了吗？中国应该明白，在这张图上，究竟愿意走“东半球”，还是愿意走“西半球”？如果贪眼前幸福走“西半球”，就会歼灭我们的后代子孙，不然我们就只好走东半球。

中国人要是识字的，看了这图真应该惊心动魄。今天在座诸位，自然我敢担保都是提倡走“东半球”的。不过这还不够，我们还要下一番刻苦的功夫，使一部分已经走向“西半球”的，拉他们回来走“东半球”。诸位！我们不负责拉他们回来，还有谁负责?

要走向“东半球”，如何一个走法？要拉回已走向“西半球”的，又如何一个拉法？对不起，今晚天气太热，诸位太辛苦了，留待明天再讲。

【注释】

1942年6 月20日至7月4日，因国际国内局势紧张，抗战任务艰巨，黄炎培应邀在成都金陵大学举办了十次中华复兴讲座，分析形势，启迪民智。这十次讲座通过对抗战局势的分析，鼓励大家不怕牺牲、勇于奉献，复兴中华国魂，取得抗战最后的胜利。这十次演讲每天早晚各讲一次，每次讲两个小时到两个半小时，本次讲座是第六讲，提出了著名名的“民族兴亡周期律”。演讲影响广大，听众有青年学生、工商界从业员、军政人员和机关公务员，有的甚至从十里以外步行前来听讲。黄炎培中华复兴讲座的十次讲稿，先在《国讯》上陆续发表，后来根据读者的要求，于1943年底合成单行本《中华复兴十讲》由重庆国讯书店出版发行。

【英译】

 Revealing and Breaking up the Periodic Law of National Rise and Fall

The ten lectures given this time could be grouped into two parts——the former five lectures being like a prologue，while the later five being like the main body，and what I am going to talk today is the very beginning of main body of the text.

Fellow listeners,I am always thinking ,to be born into this world, what on earth should a person cast his interest on?I’m afraid  the biggest interest is to enlarge the scope of new knowledge at any moment.Let’s take the World War II for example,I have learned quite much new knowledge from the war.Tonight ,I’m going to provide with you one of the most important knowledge I have acquired from the war.Hope everyone of you consider them and examine their correctness.

We could often see a family or a friend, poverty-stricken at first, gradually became prosperious and rich ,and then started to decline again.I am now sixty years old and in my short period of life time ,I have seen these people and these families with my own eyes ,they were from poor to rich ,then from rich to poor again;or from humble to noble ,and  again from noble to humble,and the number is not small.I’m always wondering about the reason.

There once was a  predecessor who had drawn the following  picture to illustrate the cause of the rise and fall of a household.The picture goes like this:

This picture shows that a person or a family’s  rise and fall is completely confined in this circle. The originally poor are sure to be hardworking and thrifty,and being hardworking and thrifty he shall succeed. After success,he wants to indulge into enjoyments and incline to get extravagant.Being both extravagant and lazy, surely he is about to fail.When failed,he has to strive to work hard and be thrifty ,and then again he is gradually on the way to success. When I first saw this picture,I didn’t quite catch it. I didn’t fully understand it  until the Pacific War was initiated——what did I get then? Let me do some detailed explaination. One day ,I was talking with a natural scientist.When we came to this circumference-circulation picture,he told me,this is exactly the same with that of the periodic law of natural science. In chemistry,atoms change in a fixed orbit;and in physics,the power functions in a fixed orbit as well. At this,I deeply sensed that I find a theory again that the natural science and social science are interlinked. I shut my door tightly and pondered on it over and over again.And then suddenly,I made it. I came to find that this periodic law is open to China and overseas, ancient and modern.And I saw that there is an interval in the middle of the circumference where it could be broken up.What I’m going to talk later on is the way to break it up.

Before the World War II,many a countries exaggeratedly claimed themselves to be superpowers over the sea and powers on the land,yet were openly smashed at just one blow.While some other countries, though originally treaded upon by other countries,managed to stand up at beating of the blow!I think this phenomenon is quite worth studying.Let me give some examples:

First of all,Germany,for instance,has been severly oppressed by the treaties of the World War I,and could not raise head for almost 20 years.Later on,it strived to work hard painstakingly and when this world war started,in no time it perished more than a dozen of countries large or small,even the power of France had to bend to surrender.This shows that  Germany,like a failed family ,strived to succeed ,as I have talked in the first lecture,to revive from the failure. Eventrually,they made it. From failure to success,what a family needs solely is to be hardworking and thrifty.Then,how about a nationality,a country?To strive to work painstakingly is hardwork,to increase production and decrease expenditure is thrift,except for these,they still need three more words—— dare to die. If a country wants to revive from failure,the first thing they need is daring to die. Because the rival countries are successful,they are inclining to indulge into enjoyments.They neither want to die nor dare to die.They do not want to die yet we do;they dare not die yet we dare,surely we will succeed in the end.  

Then,we turn to cast an eye on some other countries,the traditional powers and most firmly and completely armed countries,only to find their strongholds occupied by others in no time and quickly submerged. According to the newspaper reports,when submerged,they still have hundreds of connons,thousands of machine guns.

Why didn’t these connons open fire?Why didn’t they put these machine guns into use?Alas,forget about it!It is a sure proof that people are living an extravagant life and indulge into the enjoyments and get toally intoxicated in this wonder land.How nice!Why war?Why risk our lives? Of course,this is an occasional phenomenon,and we shouldn’t take it as an imagination of their whole future, but we should severly be aware of this ,so  I add an outside circle on the picture as follows:

As for the Pacific War,what I know could prove the correctness of the picture to some extent.It is know to all that Hongkong used to have a sound military preparation,but what did they turn out to be after the warfare?Fellow listeners,isn’t it a best proof of this picture?

Let’s look back at Japan.The Japanese warlords are running wild and have committed heinous crimes,  and they really fall into what the saying goes,‘Everybody has the right to punish.’ But somehow they have a way in their heinous way which we should pay head to.

It is beyond  everybody’s anticipation that the Pacific War would have started on December 7th last year.According to my memory,before the war was initiated, there was a Japanese envoy called Saburo Kurusu who was still negotiating with the State Council of the United States of Ameirca.But before their saliva got dry, they were engaged into war!This is utterly shameless indeed. But after all, how to fight the war ?We all know that the Japanese  attack on that day,as the U.S. acknowledged,has made Pearl Harbore suffer great losses. But how did they manage to succeed?The U.S.did make much preparations. The reason is that when Japan attacked Pearl Harbore,except for the usage of some ordinary aircrafts and warships,they have used a special kind of weapon called“suicidal submarine”.It is a kind of minimum submarine with only one occupant.When the suicidal submarine was fully loaded with gunpowder , geared at full speed and dashed to the target, the targeted warship is surely to be bombarded,but both the piloting officer and the submarine should also be smashed to pieces,there is not a single survival chance out of ten thousand times——this is called “suicidal submarine”. Let’s make a comparison,the sacrificial spirit on one side is that high,yet the other side is  extravagant and lazy and fear to die to such an extent,how could the fomer compare to the later in strength! Aren’t the above facts a powerful proof of this picture?

As for daring to die,I’d like to remind everbody ,on this point,we shoul never look down upon our enemy.The Japanese are really daring to die.According to newspaper openly reporting,I will put forward an incident for everyone——in the third Changsha battle,we greatly defeated the enemy.The resultant failure caused Lieutenant General Abe,Japanese commander in chief of Changsha battle to committ happy dispatch.The  history of committing happy dispatch in Japan is fairly long.One of the earliest  happy dispatch in Japan took place some four hundred years ago, when Kusunoki Masashige,a then faithful and courageous Japanese general was unable to stop his surbordinate general Ashikaga Takauji an armed rebellion,because he could not serve the king well and save the country , he blamed himself so much that he raged to lead his whole family to commit happy dispatch. This happened approximately during the Wanli period of Ming Dynasty. After this , when faced with unfair or hatred matters,if the ordinary officers felt regretful to the country ,to the Mikado,they would all committ happy dispatch.Utill now,it is still prevailing throughout the whole country.The Japanese are really daring to die!Nevertheless,I ’m not intending to help increasing others’ ambition and diminish the courage of our own. The reason that I say the Japanese are hard to deal with ,only to prove that our five years’anti-Japanese war are of greater value.To deal with such a fierce and arrogant country, we can fight with them for five years,what on earth do we depend on?All depends on our daring to die.And here,Allow me to tell everybody some facts.

Just now ,we came to talk about the‘Suicidal Submarine’,we figure it to be very fearsome.But it counts nothing at all. We have more than enough in China.To be able to sacrifice for and dedicate to the country,the Japanese officers need to train for a fair long period of time,while we ordinary people could do it. On January 28th,when we first fought the Japanese army in Shanghai, their ammunitions had to be loaded on Wu Song Port, and then transported by big trucks to Zha Bei District,Jiangwan Bay,Shanghai.From Wu Song to Shanghai along Huangpu River,there is a road called YiZhouTang Road.When the enemies were fighting with us,a big truck fully loaded with ammunitions rushed to the front. The driver, surnamed Hu ,called Hu A Mao,when drove his car half way,began to ponder.He thought,if this truck of ammunition were transported to Jiangwan Bay,no wonder many Chinses people were going to be killed.If running away, because Japanese officers were escorting the truck ,and  there was no escaping chance at all.It took him a long time to make a final determination.When he drove to somewhere in middle of the way, all of a sudden,he geared at full speed and dashed directly into the center of Huangpu River. With the sound of Hong,a truck of Japanese officers and ammunitions got completely lost.Hu himself lost his life as well. Fellow listeners! In what way does’t driver Hu compare with the Japanese suicidal submarine? What thought to be that great in Japan,remains so common in China,envn an ordinary driver whom the Japanese officers paid little attention could do it. The Japanese have especially built a status in memory of Kusunoki Masashige,while we treat it a matter of little importance in China.We all know that it is not a trifle thing that we could fight against Japan for five years,though we depend on the exdrodinary leadership from the top leaders,yet people with  the spirit of daring to die are somwhow a decisive factor as well.This is why we could manage to fight till today.

However,since we have so many good people,good will and good masses in China,why we still have lost so many lands and can not regain as quickly as we wish?This is because there are some other people who have treaded upon a wrong way,an extravagant and lazy way,fearing to die.Those who have treaded upon the hardworking and thrifty way,a way daring to die, managed to fight the anti-Japanese war for five years and the more they fight the stronger they get.While those who treaded upon the extravagant and thrifty way,have caused China to have lost so many territories.The coexistence of these two kinds of people in the same time have driven China into the current situation that we neither succeed nor fail,neither survive nor die.The reason that we could neither survive nor succeed is because we suffer losses from the later kind of people ;the reason that we could neither die nor fail is because we largely depend on the former kind of people who have treaded on a dare-to-die path.This is crystally  clear and neither exaggerating nor unfair at all.

Thus, from the above facts,it is very obvious that this picture greatly concerns the national rise and fall.If we take a some close look into the Chinese history,about one thousand nine hundred years ago,when the First Emperor of Han Dynasty and Xiang Yu were engaged in the war ,Xiang Yu captured the Emperor’s father and send a message to the Emperor ——Be careful,if you want to make truble for me,I will kill your father and eat his meat!The Emperor thought for a while and answered back——please send me a piece when you are eating my father. Of course,what the Emperor has said sounds like a nonsense utterance from the street boys ,yet it also represents a dare-to-die spirit.In the end,he succeeded for his dare-to-die spirit.Two hundred years later,Wang Mang came to usurp the throne.At that time,the offsprings of Liu Bang were getting degenerated indeed,Emperor Guang Wu was an exception though.In Shanghai dialect,Guang Wu was merely a ‘plain dealer’, but this plain dealer dared to rebel and managed to defeat Wang Mang and came to the throne. This is because Emperor Guang Wu dared to die.Not only him but also the Yuntai twenty eight generals all dared to die.So,they succeeded in the end. Unfortunately,in the last years of the Eastern Han Danasty,the extravagant and lazy ethos prevailed once again.As a result, all the dare-to-die people rose up one after another, thus causing the Three Kingdoms’ chaotic situation taking into form. Comparing to the first years of Western and Eastern Han Danasty,the situation was really deteriorated.From the success of the First Emperor of Han Danasty to the last years of Western Han Danasty ,from Wang Mang to Emperor Guang Wu’s revolution,from the Eastern Han Danasty to the fragmentation of the Three Kindoms by rivaling warlords, all above histories are a sure proof of the correctness of this very picture.

We also come to see that Yuan Danasty in its first years had united the whole Asia ,whose territory reaching farther into Europe’s Italy, Africa’s Egypt, covering an area of three continents :Europe ,Asia and Africa,and whose state power outshone today’s  Germany quite a lot.However,in less than one hundred years,it collapsed completely and nothing remains now.If we examine the reason of its rise and fall, again, we see a circle.This is another example.

In this regard,I gave this picture a name, called “Illustration of Worldwide National rise and fall”.

Is my speech tonight merely on a bystander’s position?Do I make sarcastic comments once for all?No,what I said above is of sense and of great sense.  

I think,that the world affairs should be pondered on carefully.If we know this shall lead to extinction,I just stop it,then everything shall be ok.We should know that,in this picture,should China tread on the Eastern Hemisphere or the Western Hemisphere?If we only seek for momentary happiness in the time being and tread on the Western Hemisphere,we shall sacrifice our offsprings,otherwise,we should tread the Eastern Hemisphere.

Any Chinese who can read Chinese characters should get soul-stirring at sight of this picture.I’m guaranteed that all fellow listeners today are advocating to tread on the Eastern Hemisphere.But this is not enough,we still have to make painstaking efforts to pull back those who have already been to the Western Hemisphere.Fellow listeners,other than us ,who else are responsible to pull them back?

Then, to tread on the Eastern Hemispher, what should we do?And what should we do to pull back  those who have already been to the Western Hemisphere? Please pardon me,it is  fairly hot tonight,and guess everybody have a long day .So I ’ll  just stop my lecture here and leave if for tomorrow.

追光译，2023年1月17日